Responding to Patterns of Change

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    Chapter 3
    Major Concepts
    • Some events are more likely to happen than other events.
    • Probability is the use of numbers to describe how likely it is an event will happen.
    • Probability helps people think about which weather events are most likely to happen in their area.
    • Probability gives people more information for making decisions.
    What Will the Future Be?

    Key idea: Weather forecasts provide information about what may happen in the future.

    Activity: Students express their ideas about the terms forecast and prediction. They also discuss phrases used in weather forecasts to identify words that indicate some degree of uncertainty.
    Yes, No, Maybe

    Key idea: Some events are more likely to happen, and others are less likely.

    Activity: Students sort words used to express the likelihood of an event happening in the future. They then practice ranking events on a scale from no chance to a certainty of occurrence.
    Probable Outcomes

    Key idea: Probability is a measure of the chance that something will happen.

    Activity: Students participate in a demonstration and an online simulation to learn about probability.
    What Will Happen Here?

    Key idea: The probability of a specific type of weather event may depend on where you live.

    Activity: Students use their understanding of probability to identify areas of the country where specific events are more likely to occur.
    You, the Decision Maker

    Key idea: Knowing the probability of different events can help people make decisions.

    Activity: Students analyze a scenario of a town that is at risk for drought. They use their understanding of probability to decide how the town should solve its problem.