There is a 3 percent chance of an earthquake happening
in Water Town each year. For each year, you will draw a marble from the bag to determine if an earthquake happened that year.

Click DRAW to draw a marble from the bag to find out if Water Town had an earthquake during Year 1.

What color did you draw? Did an earthquake occur in Water Town in Year 1?

Click DRAW to add the marble you drew for Year 1 back into the bag and draw again for Year 2.

Continue to draw marbles from the bag until you know whether or not Water Town had earthquakes over a 24-year period. Then, click the forward arrow to continue.